By Huck Fairman
More than 100 cyclones (or hurricanes) ravage parts of the earth every year.
They have deeper and longer lasting economic and behavioral impacts on the lands and populations they pass over than is generally recognized.
In the past, dryness and draughts have led to declines in empires and societies. It is happening again.
Hotter, dryer conditions produce more violence, and even increased incidents of self-harm, in societies undergoing them. India has experienced a large increase in suicides co-incidental with warming temperatures.
These and other impacts of global warming are among those economic and societal changes evident in the past, today and predicted for the future.
All of this raises the questions: What will our future look like? What should be done?
Princeton University hosted a talk by Professor Solomon Hsiang of U of CAL Berkeley (and a former postdoctoral research fellow at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs). The insight from his research is there are much broader and longer lasting impacts of climate change, particularly warming, than has been widely recognized. And the research which he, and others, have generated raises economic questions around what level of investment makes sense for nations and communities looking at current and future changes. (A recent New York Times report described the efforts and investments Miami has recently initiated to deal with sea level rise.)
What Professor Hsiang’s and colleagues’ research reveals is climate change, and the storms it generates, reduces both societal and individual abilities to maintain economic activity and income levels necessary to thrive. Also, lower income segments of populations suffer greater dislocation than do more affluent segments.
When Hurricane Maria’s 120 MPH winds passed over Puerto Rico in just 15 hours, the island lost 26 years of development and per capita income increases.
In other instances of heat-fueled, destructive storms, such as those experienced in the Philippines, the replacement construction often does not match the strength of the original buildings. This results in a reduction of not only safety, but economic value for residents and communities. Moreover, it has been found that general economic activity is reduced for years following a storm. With this decline in local capital and wealth comes a reduction in food availability and other essentials, further stressing individuals and communities.
But even short of destructive storms, Dr. Hsiang pointed to studies in this country showing with increased heat comes a reduction in productivity by workers. They work fewer hours and work not as hard, resulting in lower income, and lower regional and national GDP.
Does it make sense, therefore, for a community or nation to invest ahead of time in order to lessen the long-term impacts of global warming and its storms?
Given the evidence supporting the destructive impacts of these phenomena, and their increasing incidence, Hsiang’s research concludes that yes, it is less expensive and less disruptive to invest before those impacts make themselves felt.
In short, temperature matters – to local and even global economies and the well-being of populations. Consequently it makes economic, as well as humanitarian, sense to acknowledge our changing world, and prepare.
